Resources by Delton Alderman

Title Available As Summary Date ID Author
Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service August 2015 Housing Commentary Part B: Current Markets
The Current Market segment contains information on status of the housing market as of August 2105’s end. Also included is a slide on lending; and private and government indicators. The Current market August 2105 section includes analysis by Dr. Jed Kolko, formerly chief economist with Trulia and who is now a consultant. He also is Senior Fellow with the Terner Center for Housing Innovation at the University of California-Berkley. In these slides he provides information on the composition of house sales; single-family rentals; household formation, and vacancies.
Nov 10, 2015 ANR-167NP
Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service August 2015 Housing Commentary Part C: Demographics/Economics
The Demographic & Economics section includes information on incomes; employment; gross domestic product; United States and global economies; and demographics.
Nov 11, 2015 ANR-168NP
Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service August 2015 Housing Commentary Part D: Forecasts
The US economy is relatively sheltered from the storms of the global economy. Exports accounted for just 14 percent of GDP in 2014, which is substantially less than most developed countries. But continued weakness abroad may have an impact on the United States
Nov 12, 2015 ANR-169NP
Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service September 2015 Housing Commentary Part A: Current Data
The housing market typically slows this time of year. Thus we should look at upcoming data on a long-term basis and not by monthly data reports. September's housing data was truly mixed based on a monthly basis – permits, new sales, and construction spending all declined. Starts, existing sales, completions, and spending increased. On a regional perspective, the data was similar.
Dec 11, 2015 ANR-170NP
Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service September 2015 Housing Commentary Part B: Current Markets
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 2.3 percent on November 18, unchanged from November 13. The forecast of real growth has remained at 2.3 percent after Tuesday's releases for October data on industrial production from the Federal Reserve Board, consumer prices (CPI) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and this morning's release of October housing starts from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Dec 11, 2015 ANR-171NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service November 2015 Housing Commentary: Part A
November's housing data was predominately positive on a monthly and year-over-year basis. Most sectors improved with the exceptions of existing house sales and new housing completions. From a regional perspective, all data were mixed across sectors.
Jan 25, 2016 ANR-179NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service November 2015 Housing Commentary: Part B Jan 26, 2016 ANR-180NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service December 2015 Housing Commentary: A Feb 24, 2016 ANR-182NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service December 2015 Housing Commentary: Part B
“If current laws governing federal taxes and spending generally remained in place, by CBO’s projections, real GDP would grow by 2.7 percent this calendar year and by 2.5 percent in 2017, as measured by the change from the fourth quarter of the previous year. From 2018 through 2020, the economy would grow at an average annual rate of 2.0 percent, CBO projects.
Feb 25, 2016 ANR-183NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service February 2016 Housing Commentary: Section I
In February, housing was mixed. Total and single-family starts improved modestly month-over-month. Once again, aggregate housing permits were disappointing – total permits decreased month-over-month; single-family permits eked out a gain, and multifamily permits were decidedly negative. Housing under construction data indicated minimal increases and housing completions were negative. Total private and new single-family construction spending increased somewhat. New house sales exhibited some growth and existing sales were disappointingly negative.
Apr 29, 2016 ANR-189NP (ANR-196NP)
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service February 2016 Housing Commentary: Section II
The baseline scenario for the United States is a moderate economic expansion through the projection period. Real GDP grows at an average rate of 2! percent per year. The unemployment rate declines to 4! percent in the middle of 2017 and remains near that level through the end of the scenario period. CPI inflation rises to 2! percent at an annual rate by the middle of 2017 before dropping back to about 2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 and remaining near that level thereafter.
May 4, 2016 ANR-190NP (ANR-197NP)
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service October 2015 Housing Commentary: Section I Mar 24, 2016 ANR-191NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service March 2016 Housing Commentary: Section I May 17, 2016 ANR-202NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service March 2016 Housing Commentary: Section II May 17, 2016 ANR-203NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service April 2016 Housing Commentary: Section I
In April, aggregate housing data was positive, with new single-family housing exhibiting a surprisingly big increase. Yet, there are problematic cues – completions decreased month-over-month and year-over-year. Housing permits and starts also decreased year-over-year. Also challenging were total private residential and single-family construction spending declining month-over-month (Note, these are reported in nominal dollars). Regionally, data were mixed across all sectors. From the beginning of 2010, housing has improved. Nonetheless, most sectors of the housing market remain well less than their respective historical averages.
Jul 7, 2016 ANR-207NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service April 2016 Housing Commentary: Section II
“The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.5 percent on June 1, down from 2.9 percent on May 31. After this morning's construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the forecast for real residential investment growth decreased from 7.9 percent to 4.2 percent, the forecast for real nonresidential structures investment growth decreased from -2.8 percent to -6.5 percent, and the forecast for real government spending growth decreased from 1.2 percent to 0.4 percent.” – Pat Higgins, Economist, The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Jul 7, 2016 ANR-208NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service May 2016 Housing Commentary: Section I
In May, aggregate housing data was mixed; with new single-family housing exhibiting declines in permits, starts, spending, and sales. Month-over-month data were lackluster as well, with the exception being total housing completions. Year-over-year total housing permits and completions are now negative. Regionally, data were mixed across all sectors. From the depths of 2009, housing has improved; yet, most sectors of the housing market remain well less than their respective historical averages.
Jul 14, 2016 ANR-213NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service May 2016 Housing Commentary: Section II
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.6 percent on July 1, down from 2.7 percent on June 29. The forecast for second-quarter real nonresidential structures investment growth increased from –7.3 percent to –4.2 percent after this morning's construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau. This was more than offset by declines in the forecasts of real residential investment growth from 1.7 percent to –3.7 percent and real state and local government expenditures growth from –0.4 percent to –1.1 percent after the same release.” – Pat Higgins, Economist, The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Jul 14, 2016 ANR-214NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service June 2016 Housing Commentary: Section I
In June, aggregate housing data was mostly positive; with only total starts and housing permits declining year-over-year. Single-family spending has decreased four consecutive months; multifamily 3 of 5; and remodeling 2 of 5. Completions and new single-family sales were the “Stars” of June. Reported construction spending was disappointing as well, as total residential and single-family expenditures declined month-over-month. Regionally, data were mixed across all sectors. From the depths of 2009, housing has improved; yet, most sectors of the housing market remain well less than their respective historical averages
Aug 11, 2016 ANR-218NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service June 2016 Housing Commentary: Section II
The final GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 1.8 percent on July 28, down from 2.3 percent on July 27. After the U.S. Census Bureau's inaugural release of its advance economic indicators report, which covers retail and wholesale inventories and foreign trade in goods, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth declined from 0.17 percentage points to –0.10 percentage points and the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to growth declined from –0.63 percentage points to –0.79 percentage points
Aug 11, 2016 ANR-219NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service July 2016 Housing Commentary: Section I
In July, aggregate housing data were mixed; with several categories declining month-over-month and on a year-over-year basis. Seven categories recorded three percent or less increases. New single-family sales was the “Star” of July, increasing above its long-term historical average. In the expenditures category, single-family spending has decreased five consecutive months; remodeling expenditures increased month-over-month, yet are negative year-over-year. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow™ model projects residential investment spending, in Q3, to decrease at a 5.1 percent rate1(SAAR). Regionally, data were mixed across all sectors. From the depths of 2009, housing has improved; yet, only new single-family sales are greater than its historical average.
Sep 15, 2016 ANR-223NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service July 2016 Housing Commentary: Section II
The GDPNowmodel forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 3.3 percent on September 9, down from 3.5 percent on September 2. The forecasts of third-quarter real consumer spending growth and real equipment investment growth declined from 3.5 percent to 3.4 percent and from 3.3 percent to 2.0 percent, respectively, on Tuesday after the motor vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.62 percentage points to 0.57 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Sep 15, 2016 ANR-224NP
The Virginia Tech –U.S. Forest Service August 2016 Housing Commentary: Section I-PDF
In August, aggregate monthly housing data, based on a month-over-month comparison, were decidedly negative. Total housing permits, new SF starts, and new private SF construction spending were and are problematic –in August they all were negative on a year-over-year basis. New single-family sales appear to be reverting to their recent average. In the expenditures category, private new single-family spending has decreased monthly since March. The October 7th Atlanta Fed GDPNow™ model projects residential investment spending, in Q3, to decrease at a 7.7 percent rate1(SAAR). Regionally, data were mixed across all sectors.
Nov 15, 2016 ANR-229NP
The Virginia Tech –U.S. Forest Service August 2016 Housing Commentary: Section II
In August, aggregate monthly housing data, based on a month-over-month comparison, were decidedly negative. Total housing permits, new SF starts, and new private SF construction spending were and are problematic –in August they all were negative on a year-over-year basis. New single-family sales appear to be reverting to their recent average. In the expenditures category, private new single-family spending has decreased monthly since March. The October 7th Atlanta Fed GDPNow™ model projects residential investment spending, in Q3, to decrease at a 7.7 percent rate1(SAAR). Regionally, data were mixed across all sectors.
Nov 15, 2016 ANR-230NP
The Virginia Tech –U.S. Forest Service September 2016 Housing Commentary: Section I
In September, aggregate monthly housing data, based on a month-over-month comparison, were decidedly positive. Only housing starts and completions, were negative on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis. New single-family sales have edged lower for the past two-months. In the expenditures category, private new single-family spending increased for the first time since March; though keep in mind this was reported on a nominal basis. The November 9th Atlanta Fed GDPNow™ model projects residential investment spending, in Q4, to decrease at a -4.9 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate1. Regionally, data were mixed across all sectors.
Nov 17, 2016 ANR-232NP
The Virginia Tech –U.S. Forest Service September 2016 Housing Commentary: Section II Nov 17, 2016 ANR-233NP
The Virginia Tech –U.S. Forest Service October 2016 Housing Commentary: Section I
In October, aggregate monthly housing data, based on a month-over-month comparison, were decidedly positive. New housing starts rebounded sharply from September. Yet, new single-family house sales were negative on a month-over-month and single-family construction spending was negative year-over-year. New single-family sales have been mixed for the past few months. The December 9th Atlanta Fed GDPNow™ model projects aggregate residential investment spending to increase at a 10.7 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate; new residential investment spending was estimated to rise 12.4 percent; and improvements were projected to increase 4.3 percent in 2016.1 Regionally, data were mixed across all sectors.
Dec 19, 2016 ANR-237NP
The Virginia Tech –U.S. Forest Service October 2016 Housing Commentary: Section II
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.6 percent on December 9, unchanged from December 6. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter growth decreased from 0.46 percentage points to 0.42 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau
Dec 19, 2016 ANR-238NP
The Virginia Tech –U.S. Forest Service November 2016 Housing Commentary: Section I
In November, aggregate monthly housing data were mixed. Overall permits declined month-over-month and year-over-year and single-family permits declined month-over-month. New single-family house construction spending improved minimally on a month-over-month basis and year-over-year basis. The January 13th Atlanta Fed GDPNow™ model projects aggregate residential investment spending increased at a 9.2 percent (seasonally adjusted annual rate); new residential investment spending was estimated at 9.5 percent; and improvements were projected 3.4 percent in 2016 (based on December 16 data).1Regionally, data were mixed across all sectors.
Feb 27, 2017 ANR-246NP
The Virginia Tech –U.S. Forest Service November 2016 Housing Commentary: Section II
The GDPNowmodel forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.8 percent on January 13, down from 2.9 percent on January 10. The forecast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth ticked down from 2.6 percent to 2.5 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau.” –Pat Higgins, Economist, The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Feb 28, 2017 ANR-247NP
The Virginia Tech –U.S. Forest ServiceDecember 2016 Housing Commentary: Section I
In December 2016, aggregate monthly housing data were mixed. Overall permits declined month-over-month and in creased minimally year-over-year. Single-family permits declined month-over-month. New single-family house construction spending improved minimally on a month-over-month basis and year-over-year basis. The February 9th Atlanta Fed GDPNow™ model projects aggregate residential investment spending to increase at a 5.3 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate in Quarter 1; new residential investment spending was estimated at 10.2 percent; and improvements were projected 3.3 percent.1 Regionally, data were mixed across all sectors.
Feb 27, 2017 ANR-250NP
The Virginia Tech –U.S. Forest Service December 2016 Housing Commentary: Section II
The GDPNowmodel forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 2.7 percent on February 9, unchanged from February 7. The forecast for the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter growth remained at -0.25 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.” –Pat Higgins, Economist, The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Feb 27, 2017 ANR-251NP
The Virginia Tech –U.S. Forest ServiceJanuary 2017 Housing Commentary: Section I Apr 3, 2017 ANR-258NP
The Virginia Tech –U.S. Forest Service January 2017 Housing Commentary: Section II Apr 3, 2017 ANR-259NP
The Virginia Tech –U.S. Forest ServiceFebruary 2017 Housing Commentary: Section I Apr 28, 2017 ANR-265NP
The Virginia Tech –U.S. Forest ServiceFebruary 2017 Housing Commentary: Section II Apr 28, 2017 ANR-266NP
The Virginia Tech –U.S. Forest Service, March 2017 Housing Commentary: Section I May 23, 2017 ANR-269NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service March 2017 Housing Commentary: Section II May 23, 2017 ANR-270NP
Virginia Tech - U.S. Forest Service April 2017 Housing Commentary - Part A: Main
In April 2017, in aggregate, monthly housing data were decidedly negative on a month-over-month basis. Total and single-family (SF) permits and starts declined; yet SF starts increased. New SF and existing sales, and completions also decreased. Observing unadjusted data; permits, starts, and new SF sales were similar to April 2016. In fact, SF starts and new SF unadjusted sales were greater than April 2016. New SF house construction spending increased minimally month-over-month. Regionally, data were mixed across all sectors. The June 13thAtlanta Fed GDPNow™ model projects aggregate residential investment spending to increase at a 5.8 percent seasonally adjusted annual rate for Quarter 2; both new residential investment and improvements spending were projected to increase (7.6 and 3.0 percent, respectively). All declined from Q1’s estimate.
Jul 7, 2017 ANR-275NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service April 2017 Housing Commentary: Section II
The GDPNowmodel forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 3.0 percent on June 9, down from 3.4 percent on June 2. The forecast for second-quarter real GDP growth fell from 3.4 percent to 3.1 percent on June 5 after the U.S. Census Bureau's manufacturing report and the incorporation of motor vehicle sales estimates released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on the prior business day. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to second-quarter growth declined from 0.87 percentage points to 0.77 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade report from the Census Bureau.
Jul 10, 2017 ANR-276NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service May 2017 Housing Commentary: Section I
The aggregate U.S. housing market hit a stumbling block in May, as most monthly indicators were negative on a month-over-month basis. However, on a year-over-year basis, the majority were positive, with the exception of total permits and starts. Problematic is construction spending, as single-family, multifamily, and improvement expenditures were negative on a month-over-month basis. These sub-sectors bear watching, as the continuation of this pattern may indicate a slowdown in the housing market. Regionally, data were mixed across all sectors. The July 11thAtlanta Fed GDPNow™ model projects aggregate residential investment spending to decrease at a -1.0% percent seasonally adjusted annual rate. New private housing was estimated to decline -2.5% and improvement spending was projected to increase 1.6% in Quarter 2. All declined from Q1’s forecasts.
Jul 18, 2017 ANR-282NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service May 2017 Housing Commentary: Section II Jul 19, 2017 ANR-283NP
The Virginia Tech - U.S. Forest Service June 2017 Housing Commentary - Part A: Main Aug 30, 2017 ANR-286NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service June 2017 Housing Commentary: Section II Aug 30, 2017 ANR-287NP
VT - U.S. Forest service July 2017 Housing Commentary - Part A: Main Oct 2, 2017 ANR-293NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service July 2017 Housing Commentary: Section II Oct 2, 2017 ANR-294NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service August 2017 Housing Commentary: Section I Oct 30, 2017 ANR-296NP
The Virginia Tech – U.S. Forest Service August 2017 Housing Commentary: Section II Oct 30, 2017 ANR-297NP