Based on forecasts for March 2026, Virginia is experiencing an unseasonably warm, dry, and potentially volatile, weather pattern following a winter that has already accelerated early development in some small grains.

Extremely warm, with temperatures potentially in the 70s to low 80s F, which is well above normal for early March. A strong cold front swept through Virginia on March 12, bringing an abrupt end to warm, springlike weather causing temperatures to drop back to the 50s F. Most of the commonwealth has experienced sub-freezing temperatures overnight, with lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Similar temperatures are expected to occur with the next storm anticipated for March 17-18. This unsettled weather pattern is essentially flipping between heat‑driven growth spurts and cold stress within days.

Long-term trends indicate that wheat in Virginia is reaching the jointing growth stage (Feekes 6/GS31) earlier than in past decades.

The shift is associated with warmer fall and winter temperatures which increase growing degree day (GDD) accumulation. Higher temperatures in late winter and early spring have driven faster spring development, often leading to earlier green-up and faster transition to jointing.

In certain recent years, the growing conditions have caused more rapid advancement grom one growth stage to another, pushing the developmental time by one to two weeks.

Typically occurring in early April, the jointing stage is occurring increasingly more often in late March. This is raising the risk of significant spring freeze damage. The below freezing temperatures after the cereal crops reached Feekes 6 is concerning. This is because the plants have entered the jointing growth stage that marks the transition from vegetative to reproductive growth. At Feekes 6, the plants begin rapid stem elongation, and the developing spike are emerging above ground. As growing points elevate above the soil surface during jointing, vulnerability to freeze injury increases greatly.

When a freeze follows rapid stem elongation, the risk of injury to the spikes, even if only a brief overnight cold snap occurs.

Where to find freeze injury

Freeze injury can occur over large areas or sporadic from field to field. The damage is often more serious in fields near rivers and in valleys as the cold air gathers and lingers in low laying areas.

If your wheat or barley experiences sub‑freezing temperatures at or after jointing, wait three to five days, then check the developing head’s health.

Yellowing of the leaves, lesions and bending of lower stems, silage odor are among the primary symptoms. Choose the bigger stems at multiple locations across the field and split them open. Browning or water‑soaked tissue within the developing spike indicate damage.

Minor to moderate freeze damage typically will not impact yield potential. Severe freeze damage may result up to 20% loss.

Winter cereals are generally tolerant of temperatures in the range of 20 F, however exposure to such low temperatures exceeding two hours may be harmful.

Prioritize field scouting now to determine exact growth stage and freeze exposure, focusing on the presence of the first node and the position of the growing point. As temperatures warm up and the outlook is positive for precipitation, prepare to make timely nitrogen application decisions to boost your crops vitality.

Written by Olga Walsh, grain crops Extension specialist.